According to @KobeissiLetter, US heavy truck sales fell 47% over the last three months versus the prior three months to a 363,000 annualized pace, the lowest since 2020, with declines in four of the last five months (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author adds that such a rapid drop has only occurred during recessions historically and reflects weakening freight, construction, and industrial demand, pointing to a substantial headwind to US GDP growth in H2 2025 (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author also notes the AI trade is decoupled from these macro signals, a divergence traders can reference when assessing risk across cyclicals, high beta, and digital assets such as BTC and ETH (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, US jobs increased by less than 1% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, over the past 50 years this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, a macro risk flag traders can incorporate into positioning and risk management. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the copper-to-gold ratio has dropped to its lowest level in at least 40 years, signaling a potential recession. This ratio, which has historically been an indicator for economic health, has halved over the last three years. Recent data shows a significant acceleration of this decline, with gold prices rising by 9% while copper prices have plummeted, highlighting a potential shift in market dynamics that traders should closely monitor.