According to Charlie Bilello, US jobs increased by less than 1% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, over the past 50 years this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, a macro risk flag traders can incorporate into positioning and risk management. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the copper-to-gold ratio has dropped to its lowest level in at least 40 years, signaling a potential recession. This ratio, which has historically been an indicator for economic health, has halved over the last three years. Recent data shows a significant acceleration of this decline, with gold prices rising by 9% while copper prices have plummeted, highlighting a potential shift in market dynamics that traders should closely monitor.